Sep 26, 2022·edited Sep 26, 2022Liked by Lex Weiser
I am a firm believer in cycles and their predictive power. Being a new reader, I hope I am not being repetitive in mentioning "The Fourth Turning" by Strauss & Howe. They went with an eighty year cycle paradigm. Their cycle analysis pointed to this time period as the ending of a cycle, and the birth of a new one. Their early '90s description of what we could see was eerily accurate. It is interesting to note that they pointed out there were no guarantees of a "good" outcome.
Not repetitive at all! The "Pendulum" authors actually acknowledge that they are "standing on the shoulders of giants," namely Strauss & Howe. The theories overlap in that what Strauss & How called the "idealist" and "adaptive" generations are what Williams and Drew call the "Me" and "We" generations. From there, the details diverge.
Strauss & Howe also described how, sometimes, a cycle gets compressed or skips a phase. Their example was the u.s. civl war, where the tensions were stoked to the point where a crisis developed early. Exceptions to the cycle can also happen as a result of external events and crises. The exceptions prove the rule, as the cycles are still recognizable and proceed back to "normal."The situation today may prove to be another compressed cycle. I simply cannot imagine the present trends to continue much longer- a breaking point is imminent. Also, the Strauss-Howe theory predicted a "fourth turning" crisis to be about where we're at now (those in power have stalled it but they cannot stop it). A "fourth turning" is a bit more than a social shift from "we" to "me."
Interesting idea, but I question your interpretation of where we currently are in the cycle. Shouldn't we say that the previous "We" phase came to its extreme in the early 1940s during the Second World War, and that there was steady movement towards extreme "Me" from the late 1940s through the 1980s? Contrary to your prediction, this suggests that movement towards "Me" will begin in this decade, not in the 2040s.
Maybe I'm a wishful thinker, but I have a strong sense—and I know I'm not the only one—that in the senseless Covid panic of the last couple of years we have seen the darkest moment before a libertarian dawn.
I can't take credit for the concept. The authors are pretty adamant about the precision of their timing, so I'll defer to them on that. Unfortunately, their forecast predicts that the worst is yet to come.
I called it "your interpretation" because I assumed Williams and Drew agreed with me on the proper setting of the clock. Now that I've browsed the PDF a little, it's hard to tell. Their use of the pendulum metaphor can get confusing.
My ass they "reviewed 3,000 years of history" on a decade by decade basis. Do you have any idea how many researchers it takes scurrying in archives to analize even one decade? How many papers one has to read to understand a century? Besides, there is barely any data for events 3,000 years ago.
I'm still waiting for somebody who makes this "cyclicality" argument to actually go ahead and dive into history to illustrate me some successive cycles. Instead they usually begin their story somewhere in the post-WWII period. That's how I know all this Fourth Turning (and related) shit is a big ole fabrication to sell a book no-one will remember in 5 years.
Excellent summary. I've seen Roy lecture on this topic, and he certainly believed there was no stopping it. However, I don't think we'll see this cycle fully play out. Another—more devastating—cycle will transform our lives. The 12,000 year solar cycle: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kmgaxrrjog
Thanks, Tony. I've been following "the Wizard" for over 20 years, and anyone who dismisses him as "just an ad man" is definitely missing out on some very keen insights.
Are you familiar with Martin Armstrong? He also discusses cycles in depth, including the solar cycle.
Sep 27, 2022·edited Sep 27, 2022Liked by Lex Weiser
I'm not familiar with Martin Armstrong. [Brave search...] Oh wow! He is quite a genius! https://www.desmog.com/martin-armstrong/ <-- (and on the hit list of climate PR henchmen.)
He was the first one to sound alarm bells about the WEF, and is incredibly well connected. The fact that he has millions of readers but the mainstream media pretends he doesn't exist should tell you exactly what you need to know.
I start off each day by checking his blog. His interviews are a great place to start, if you're looking for a general overview of his concepts.
I am a firm believer in cycles and their predictive power. Being a new reader, I hope I am not being repetitive in mentioning "The Fourth Turning" by Strauss & Howe. They went with an eighty year cycle paradigm. Their cycle analysis pointed to this time period as the ending of a cycle, and the birth of a new one. Their early '90s description of what we could see was eerily accurate. It is interesting to note that they pointed out there were no guarantees of a "good" outcome.
Not repetitive at all! The "Pendulum" authors actually acknowledge that they are "standing on the shoulders of giants," namely Strauss & Howe. The theories overlap in that what Strauss & How called the "idealist" and "adaptive" generations are what Williams and Drew call the "Me" and "We" generations. From there, the details diverge.
Strauss & Howe also described how, sometimes, a cycle gets compressed or skips a phase. Their example was the u.s. civl war, where the tensions were stoked to the point where a crisis developed early. Exceptions to the cycle can also happen as a result of external events and crises. The exceptions prove the rule, as the cycles are still recognizable and proceed back to "normal."The situation today may prove to be another compressed cycle. I simply cannot imagine the present trends to continue much longer- a breaking point is imminent. Also, the Strauss-Howe theory predicted a "fourth turning" crisis to be about where we're at now (those in power have stalled it but they cannot stop it). A "fourth turning" is a bit more than a social shift from "we" to "me."
Thanks for the added info! Whatever's coming, it's likely to get a whole lot worse before it gets better.
It seems to be the "we" cycle that is doing the phoniness and depravity these days.
Unfortunately it does.
Interesting idea, but I question your interpretation of where we currently are in the cycle. Shouldn't we say that the previous "We" phase came to its extreme in the early 1940s during the Second World War, and that there was steady movement towards extreme "Me" from the late 1940s through the 1980s? Contrary to your prediction, this suggests that movement towards "Me" will begin in this decade, not in the 2040s.
Maybe I'm a wishful thinker, but I have a strong sense—and I know I'm not the only one—that in the senseless Covid panic of the last couple of years we have seen the darkest moment before a libertarian dawn.
I can't take credit for the concept. The authors are pretty adamant about the precision of their timing, so I'll defer to them on that. Unfortunately, their forecast predicts that the worst is yet to come.
I called it "your interpretation" because I assumed Williams and Drew agreed with me on the proper setting of the clock. Now that I've browsed the PDF a little, it's hard to tell. Their use of the pendulum metaphor can get confusing.
My ass they "reviewed 3,000 years of history" on a decade by decade basis. Do you have any idea how many researchers it takes scurrying in archives to analize even one decade? How many papers one has to read to understand a century? Besides, there is barely any data for events 3,000 years ago.
Don't you spot the most obvious sensational lies?
Valid point. Perhaps it would be more accurate to say they reviewed the highlights, especially of the first 1,500 or so. 😄
I'm still waiting for somebody who makes this "cyclicality" argument to actually go ahead and dive into history to illustrate me some successive cycles. Instead they usually begin their story somewhere in the post-WWII period. That's how I know all this Fourth Turning (and related) shit is a big ole fabrication to sell a book no-one will remember in 5 years.
You may want to check out Martin Armstrong. He has spent 40+ years doing the research.
Excellent summary. I've seen Roy lecture on this topic, and he certainly believed there was no stopping it. However, I don't think we'll see this cycle fully play out. Another—more devastating—cycle will transform our lives. The 12,000 year solar cycle: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kmgaxrrjog
Thanks, Tony. I've been following "the Wizard" for over 20 years, and anyone who dismisses him as "just an ad man" is definitely missing out on some very keen insights.
Are you familiar with Martin Armstrong? He also discusses cycles in depth, including the solar cycle.
I'm not familiar with Martin Armstrong. [Brave search...] Oh wow! He is quite a genius! https://www.desmog.com/martin-armstrong/ <-- (and on the hit list of climate PR henchmen.)
He was the first one to sound alarm bells about the WEF, and is incredibly well connected. The fact that he has millions of readers but the mainstream media pretends he doesn't exist should tell you exactly what you need to know.
I start off each day by checking his blog. His interviews are a great place to start, if you're looking for a general overview of his concepts.
Here's the blog - https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/blog/
And here's a recent interview that would be a good introduction - https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong-in-the-media/interview-world-first-the-plot-to-seize-russia-war-propaganda-and-more/
Thanks for taking the time to acquaint me with him. As Yogi Berra famously said, “It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” :)